Adelaide Crows vs Richmond Tigers
Betting Odds & Tips
Round six of the AFL season will end with a top-of-the-table clash no one would’ve predicted as the undefeated Tigers and Crows face off at Adelaide Oval.
Despite both teams coming into this game without loss, Adelaide is the clear favourite thanks to a combination of home ground advantage and the calibre of the teams they’ve beaten. The Crows have defeated flag favourites GWS as well as a resurgent Port Adelaide, while crushing middle of the table teams like Essendon and Gold Coast. By comparison, Richmond’s biggest wins come with asterisks. Their win over West Coast took place at the MCG, where the Eagles have a terrible record. Their Anzac Eve win over Melbourne was facilitated by Melbourne being two players down on the bench in wet conditions where the Tigers simply overran the exhausted Demons. Richmond, in the eyes of many, is yet to prove themselves worthy of their current ladder position. Adelaide by comparison are all of a sudden the team to beat.
Adelaide’s start to the season is even more impressive when you consider their injury list. The team came into the season without key midfield duo Scott Thompson and Brad Crouch, the latter playing his first game last week. Cam Ellis-Yoleman also suffered a season-ending knee injury in the pre-season, meaning a lot was resting on the shoulders of Rory Sloane, who also came into round one with injury concerns. They boast the most impressive forward line in the competition, but have lost pillars Josh Jenkins and Mitch McGovern for chunks of the year to injury as well.
The fact that they’ve been unstoppable despite these injuries is incredibly impressive. Sloane is close to the best player in the competition at the moment and up forward, Taylor Walker and Eddie Betts are in career best form.
Richmond’s success has been built off their speed of ball movement. From one of the most stagnant teams in the competition in 2016, they’ve quickly become a far more attacking team thanks to the likes of Daniel Rioli, Jason Castagna and Dan Butler injecting some pace into the side going forward. It helps that captain Trent Cotchin has rediscovered his best form and Dustin Martin has gone to another level as well. The inclusions of Dion Prestia and Josh Caddy have also bolstered their midfield, allowing Martin to spend more time forward.
This will be a key match-up on Sunday as the Tigers will need to win the midfield battle if they have any chance of toppling Adelaide. Ruckman Toby Nankervis has been very impressive and will need to give Richmond first-use against the ever-reliable Sam Jacobs. Keeping Sloane quiet will be crucial, but it’s a task no team has managed this year with the Adelaide superstar averaging 29 disposals, five tackles and eight clearances per game.
Richmond will also be hoping Daniel Talia doesn’t come up from a suspected hamstring injury. Jack Riewoldt kicked six goals against the Demons, taking some good form into this game, and they’ll need him to stand up again if they have any chance of winning. Adelaide’s backline relies heavily on the rebounding abilities of Rory Laird and Brodie Smith. The Tigers have a better chance than most of limiting their impact thanks to their aforementioned small forward brigade that will force Laird and Smith into defending them.
Expect the biggest difference between the teams to lie in Adelaide’s forward 50. Alex Rance versus Walker should be a very good match-up, but they won’t be able to stop Betts and Charlie Cameron from getting on top. Andy Otten has done a good job as a tall foil up forward as well for the Crows without hitting the scoreboard.
Adelaide has won three of their past five games against Richmond, but the Tigers do hold a victory at Adelaide Oval when these teams met in 2014. Expect the home ground advantage to be a big factor in the match though.
Adelaide will be too strong for Richmond who will be shown-up as a team that hasn’t really beaten anyone yet. No team is able to ride momentum like Richmond, but at the end of the day if the Crows can beat GWS at Adelaide Oval, they can certainly do the same to the Tigers.
Adelaide to win: $1.18 at Sportsbet
You won’t get a great value by gambling on Adelaide winning, but there is value in betting on a blowout and if the Crows have proven anything this year, it’s that once they get rolling, they can bury teams. Their forward line is potent enough to kick big scores too.
Adelaide by 40+ points: $2.10 at William Hill
Other markets worth looking at:
Brad Crouch to get 30+ disposals: $2.40 at Sportsbet
Richmond by 1-39 points: $5.50 at Sportsbet
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Writer at the Australian Betting Organization
Nic studied at Monash University and is currently working as a sports journalist. You’ll often find Nic at the pub enjoying time with friends while watching UFC and WWE.
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