AFL Brownlow Medal Betting Odds & Analysis
Patrick Dangerfield is going to win the Brownlow Medal. However, there are still plenty of punting opportunities in the Brownlow race including the top five finishes, induvial club winners and runners up.
Of course, if you simply want to make a few bucks betting on Dangerfield, the best odds on him winning the medal sit with Centrebet at $1.25, but putting that aside, let’s get into a few more exotic markets.
Top five finish
There are always players who sneak into the top five of the Brownlow Medal and this year will be no exception. The trick is finding players who aren’t necessarily favourites for the medal, but play in winning teams that will allow them to vote more often. Luke Parker ($2.25 Centrebet) presents himself as a strong contender for a top five finish. Sydney won the minor premiership and Parker has had a consistently strong year from start to finish. There’s a good chance he’ll poll enough votes to finish in the top five and the AFL website’s voting even has him finishing runner up. Another player to consider is Jack Steven ($6.00 William Hill) who won’t have many votes taken off him this year and will probably poll a lot of three-vote games. Brownlow Medallist Matthew Priddis ($8 William Hill) always votes better than expected and even though West Coast didn’t do as well as the previous two seasons, he’s never out of the equation for a top five finish. An outsider with a much better chance at finishing top five than he’s being given by the bookies is Stephen Coniglio ($17 Sportsbet). Coniglio finished in the All Australian squad and is a safe bet for at least 15 votes. From there, it all depends on whether he gets the nod over his Giants teammates who might steal votes from him. He’s very much an outside chance, but still a possibility.
Highest vote getters by club
Clubs near the bottom of the ladder provide the best chance of an unlikely top vote getter due to the club not getting many votes. Brisbane provides a good example of this with Dayne Zorko ($3.00 at William Hill) a big chance to upset captain Tom Rockliff ($1.55 Crownbet) in this market. An unexpected option at North Melbourne could be Jarrad Waite ($17.00 Centrebet). Despite only playing 14 games for the season, Waite’s first half of the season saw him right up there in a number of statistical categories and the Kangaroos’ backend of the season won’t see them winning many votes. Patrick Cripps ($1.85 Centrebet) is a very strong chance of polling the most votes at Carlton.
Brownlow winner without Dangerfield
The race for second place will be hotly contested and is a tough market in terms of safe money as there really aren’t any stand-out options. When you’re looking for a specific placing too, it’s difficult to narrow players down as it comes down to what the umpire sees in each specific game. Luke Parker ($7.00 William Hill) presents an option for the reasons mentioned above. Dustin Martin ($4.00 William Hill) will be another hot favourite, but it all comes down to whether Richmond did enough for him considering their ladder placing. At longer odds, Sam Mitchell ($11.00 Sportsbet) has been there before and someone will need to collect votes for the Hawks. Mitchell’s start to the season should see him polling votes early.
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Writer at the Australian Betting Organization
Nic studied at Monash University and is currently working as a sports journalist. You’ll often find Nic at the pub enjoying time with friends while watching UFC and WWE.
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