Hawthorn Hawks vs. Richmond Tigers
Betting Odds & Tips
Sunday afternoon will see the Hawks take on the Tigers at the MCG in a far more even game than many people would think. Hawthorn is coming off a hellacious last second victory over the Swans interstate last week, while Richmond held off a gallant Essendon. On the surface, it wouldn’t seem like the Tigers would be any match for the top-of-the-table Hawks, but this could be the upset of the round. There are many factors to consider in this game, so let’s break them down.
The extended squads have been released and the news isn’t initially good for Richmond with midfielder Brett Deledio missing with a calf injury. Kane Lambert has been named in the starting 18 as his replacement, while Reece Conca, Nathan Drummond and Ben Lennon are also on the extended interchange. As for the Hawks, Will Langford, Kurt Heatherley and Tim O’Brien have been added to their squad with no omissions as of yet. O’Brien has been a find for them up forward this year and is probably the most likely inclusion of the three.
The Hawks have raced to the top of the ladder since the mid-point of the season and haven’t lost a game in 10 weeks. Their list is fit and they’re all-but assured of a home final at this point. So how can the Tigers even be considered as remote chances for this game? All sides have bogey teams, and for whatever reason, the Hawks have always struggled to beat Richmond. It took a fourth quarter siege for Hawthorn to defeat them earlier in the year and the Tigers have won three of their last five encounters. In fact, the Hawks have not beaten Richmond twice in the same season since 1992. This is the definition of a bogey side. Whether it results in Richmond winning or not, this should be a more even contest than you’d otherwise expect.
The Hawks are doing well on the injury front, with no new additions to the list in a while and will be coming into this game with a reasonably settled side. As for Richmond, they’ll be without defender Bachar Houli for probably another one to two weeks, while Deledio will miss this week, but be in contention for their next game against GWS.
Hawthorn’s forward line has been tough to curtail this year, even without Jarryd Roughead as the likes of Cyril Rioli, Luke Breust and James Sicily provide very tough match-ups. Steve Morris has usually gotten the job on one of Rioli or Breust, but is out injured. Richmond guns Dustin Martin and Trent Cotchin are in good form, but will have to go head to head with the man who won the game for the Hawks last week, Shaun Burgoyne, and Sam Mitchell, who is in career best form. On top of that, Hawthorn will have an added edge this week as they celebrate Mitchell’s 300th game for the club. It can be a double-edged sword however, as occasionally milestone games can go astray and cause some strange results. It’ll be a cold and wet day too, which may favour the Tigers who are a better team when it comes to contested footy. At the very least, it should allow for a low scoring, close match.
- Australian Betting Organization Estimations
- Hawthorn likelihood to win: 92%
- Richmond likelihood to win 8%
Best Australian Bookmaker Odds:
Hawthorn to win: $1.14 at Sportsbet
Richmond to win: $6.00 at William Hill
Hawthorn to win by 1-19 points: $5.50 at Centrebet
Final Analysis & Betting Tip
Our recommendation for this game is Hawthorn by 1-19 points at Centrebet.com. While Hawthorn are the strong favourites for the game, Richmond’s history against the Hawks as well as the wet conditions mean it could be a tight contest and $5.50 is excellent value for that result. There isn’t much value in betting on Hawthorn to simply win, so going for the margin is the best way to capitalise on this contest.
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Writer at the Australian Betting Organization
Nic studied at Monash University and is currently working as a sports journalist. You’ll often find Nic at the pub enjoying time with friends while watching UFC and WWE.
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