Melbourne Cup Betting Odds and Analysis 2016

It’s the race that stops the nation and it has crept up on us quickly this year! No event in Australia is analysed as thoroughly as the Melbourne Cup and with more bets placed on this one race than on any other national sporting event, getting your facts straight is especially important.

This article will attempt to give you a basic understanding of what it takes to win the Melbourne Cup and what you should be keeping your eye on. Of course, last year showed that anything can happen – so let’s break it down and make it as easy as possible for you to lay your bets.

1. Betting favourites do NOT have a good track record of winning the race. With the exception of Makybe Diva in the early 2000’s, only one horse has won going in as the bookies’ favourite and that was Fiorente in 2013. In fact, the last two favourites have finished 13^th and 22^nd respectively. Hartnell ($4.40, William Hill) is the current favourite. Another issue is punters who only ever bet on the Melbourne Cup and pay no attention to horse racing any other time of the year naturally bet on the favourite, artificially shortening the odds.
2. No horse older than eight-years old has won the Melbourne Cup. Four horses come into the event at age eight: Who Shot Thebarman ($17.00 Sportsbet), Wicklow Brave ($17.00 Sportsbet), Sir John Hawkwood ($41.00 Sportsbet) and Curren Mirotic ($26.00 Sportsbet).
3. All Melbourne Cup winners since 2000 have had their last race in Australia prior to the event. If you’re betting on an international horse, make sure it’s had a few runs in the country.
4. Statistically speaking, horses between four and five years old win the race more than any other age, barriers number five and eleven produce the most winners and winners coming in with the number four or twelve on their backs win more than any other number. Use that information however you like.
5. The weather should be cool and cloudy on Tuesday meaning it should have little effect on the race.
6. Mares and colts have won a combined 34 Melbourne Cup’s between them and fillies have won only three. Geldings have won 49 and stallions 66.

Taking into account all of the key statistics above, Bondi Beach ($11.00, William Hill) and Exospheric ($21.00, Sportsbet) tick off the most boxes. Both are stallions between the age of four and five. The barriers have not been drawn yet, but that is the last factor to be taken into account.

Looking at the favourites, Hartnell ($4.40, William Hill) is a little older, but not to the extent where it’s really an issue and geldings have a decent enough track record in these races. Jameka ($6.50, Bookmaker) is a four-year-old mare who recently won the Caulfield Cup. Almandin ($13.00, Sportsbet) is a seven-year-old gelding who is being heralded as a big chance of winning the Cup. He sits out of the statistical range for Cup winners, but experts say he’s running at his peak.

The Melbourne Cup is as unpredictable as any sporting event in the country and declaring that one horse is going to take it all would be folly so we recommend having a look at all of the horses above and placing your money accordingly. However, Bondi Beach ($11.00, William Hill) seems to be the best value of the bunch.