Tour de France Betting Odds & Analysis
The Tour de France is underway for 2016 and the biggest cycling event in the world is shaping up very nicely as the Olympics approach. This year’s race is quite similar to last year’s in terms of terrain with the organizers clearly looking to repeat some of the tension that came with the ending of 2015’s race. Three mountain races and two with summit finishes really makes for some exciting racing as cyclists are pushed to the limits to take home the prize money.
The race has belonged to Chris Froome so far. Bookies have him as the outright favourite to win the race, but outside of him, who remains a chance? Many believe Nairo Quintana is his biggest competition right now as the Colombian has prepared for altitude conditions, which suit the course for the coming few stages. He has also been very strong in the third week of past grand tours, while Froome is known for occasionally dropping off in third weeks of the past.
Experts are looking at stage 17 as the decisive part of the race, with the mountainous terrain set to play a massive part in the race. Tour de France finishes mountaintop races rarely have such steep summits and the lack of valleys makes it difficult for racers to attack. Froome seems to have the advantage here as he’s proven himself as the best climber in the race and while he may not have put too much of a gap between himself and other competitors, his form seems to be growing with every stage.
Richie Porte appears to be another who can challenge Froome as the Australian has looked good in the race recently and has favorable conditions ahead of him. He’s been the second best climber so far in the race and has been near the top for a number of years now. The biggest question mark over the 31-year-old is whether he can maintain this form much longer. His levels have dropped slightly as the stages have progressed and that may determine his chances of stealing a win from the British Froome.
- Australian Betting Organization Estimations
- Chris Froome likelihood to win: 90%
- Nario Quintana likelihood to win 7%
- Richie Porte likelihood to win: 3%
Best Australian Bookmaker Odds:
Chris Froome to win: $1.10 at William Hill
Nario Quintana to win: $17 at Sportsbet
Stage 17, Richie Porte to win: $9 at Sportsbet
Final Analysis & Betting Tip
At this stage, it’s very hard to bet against Chris Froome and so we don’t recommend betting against him. There might be some value in Richie Porte to win Stage 17 at $9 with Sportsbet.com.au, but going passed Froome at this stage seems like an unsafe bet. There might not be much value in Froome overall, but you can get $3.25 on him to win Stage 17 and that’s decent value as far as we’re concerned. If you’re looking to put money on the Tour de France, Chris Froome to win Stage 17 at $3.25 is our recommendation.
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Writer at the Australian Betting Organization
Nic studied at Monash University and is currently working as a sports journalist. You’ll often find Nic at the pub enjoying time with friends while watching UFC and WWE.
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