UFC 204 Card Analysis and Predictions
Middleweight Bout: Vitor Belfort versus Gregard Mousasi
The main-event isn’t the only middleweight bout on the card. This fight will see the veteran Vitor Belfort, boasting a knockout focused style and Gregard Mousasi, who is more technically savvy. The difference between these two guys might come down to who can get the fight on their terms. If Mousasi can extend the bout into the later rounds, he should be able to wear Belfort down and take him out. Mousasi’s edge will come from his striking ability on the ground and it’s questionable as to whether Belfort can go with him if he’s taken down. On the flip side, if Belfort goes on the offensive and rocks Mousasi early using his speed, this could be a one round fight.
Our prediction is for Gregard Mousasi to win. As long as he can keep the fight on his terms, Belfort will struggle to go the distance and Mousasi boasts the advantage on the mat and with submissions. Many have even called him the most intelligent fighter in MMA. Belfort boasts a victory over Dan Henderson, but Mousasi is a style of opponent that he will struggle to defeat.
Featherweight Bout: Misrad Bektic versus Russell Doane
After Misrad Bektic’s first two opponents pulled out due to injury, Russell Doane stepped up on five days’ notice to take the fight. The undefeated Bektic is a well-rounded wrestler who is known for his ability to maul his opponents on the mat. It’s hard to see Doane standing much of a chance coming off so little preparation, but he’s certainly not to be written off.
Unless Doane can end this fight quickly, it’s hard to see Bektic’s 10-0 record being blemished in this fight.
Heavyweight Bout: Stefan Struve versus Daniel Omielanczuk
This bout proves to be a tough one to predict because Stefan Struve can sometimes be a mixed bag. If he uses his significant reach advantage to the best of his ability, he will be almost impossible to beat, but if Omielanczuk gets inside his pocket, he could be in trouble. Struve comes into the fight as the favourite according to experts, but Omielanczuk is a strong submission fighter and if he can bring that into play, Struve might struggle to go with him.
We still see Struve winning this fight as he is in good form and should probably be able to end it in the first round.
Light Heavyweight Bout: Ovince Saint Preux versus Jimi Manuwa
This fight might actually be the most interesting on the card. Ovince is a rising star of the division with all the makings of a future champion. His most recent fight was against Jon Jones, where he last the full 25 minutes to take the fight to a decision despite breaking his arm early in the bout. Manuwa, the hometown boy, is an incredibly strong stand-up fighter and the query will be whether Saint Preux can take the punishment.
This should be a great contest, but the edge lies with the more experienced Manuwa here.
Middleweight Championship Bout: Michael Bisping (c) versus Dan Henderson 2
Regardless of the result, Dan Henderson is retiring and that makes him even more dangerous. The new Middleweight Champion Michael Bisping is at the top of his game and gets to perform in front of his home crowd which will give him an edge. They last met at UFC100 in 2009 where Henderson knocked Bisping out in spectacular fashion. Of course, a lot of time has passed since then and despite Henderson winning his last fight by knockout at UFC199, Bisping is in the peak of his career and might have surpassed the retiring veteran.
Unfortunately, we don’t see the fairytale happening for Henderson and expect Bisping to retain his title. The general consensus is if Bisping can extend the fight over three rounds, Henderson won’t have the stamina to go with him. However, Bisping did walk into a knockout punch at UFC100 and all it takes is one good hit from Hendo.
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Writer at the Australian Betting Organization
Nic studied at Monash University and is currently working as a sports journalist. You'll often find Nic at the pub enjoying time with friends while watching UFC and WWE.
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