Olympics 2016 Women’s 4×100 Medley Relay
As the swimming portion of the Olympic Games comes to a close, one event to keep an eye on is the women’s 4×100 Medley Relay this Saturday. The event has been dominated by the Americans in the past, but the field is wider than the bookmakers are giving credit.
The crucial thing to remember is we won’t know the final line-ups for each team until the day which means anything is possible. You only have to look at Australia leaving Cam McEvoy out of their relay, essentially costing themselves a medal, as an example of the line-ups affecting the result.
USA: Dana Vollmer, Olivia Smoliga, Lilly King and Abbey Weitzel
The team that won this event in 2012 could possibly bring four fresh faces into their squad this time around. King is the queen of the breaststroke this year and is a lock for that portion of the medley, having already won the gold medal in that event. Smolgia and Weitzel are in good forms, putting in personal bests at the trials. Weitzel will swim in the 100m freestyle final today, qualifying eighth. The interesting decision will be whether they go with Kelsi Worrell or one of the defending champions in this event, Dana Vollmer. Vollmer won the bronze in the butterfly and outswam Worrell in both the heats and the semis. Many predicted Worrell would be in the side pre-games, but it’s hard to overlook Vollmer.
AUS: Emily Seebohm, Cate Campbell, Taylor McKeown and Maddy Groves
The Aussie girls have been dominant so far in Rio and they are the biggest threats to the Americans in this race. Seebohm swam a poor race in the backstroke final, finish seventh, but still outswam teammate Maddie Wilson, meaning she’ll probably keep her spot in this side. Seebohm was a medal fancy and should bounce back from the poor result. Cate Campbell picks herself and will be the weapon that could send Australia to gold, while McKeown’s performance in the breaststroke should get her into the side ahead of Georgia Bohl. McKeown is the Aussie’s best chance of keeping up with Lilly King who will dominate that leg of the event. Australia are spoiled for choice in the butterfly with Emma McKeon and Maddy Groves, who won silver in the butterfly, both available for selection. Basically, Australia has a tonne of depth and someone as dominant as Campbell. They are going to be tough to stop.
The Battle for Bronze:
The other squads aren’t really as important as it’s a race between the above nations for the gold medal. China, Canada, Sweden and Denmark will probably battle it out for the bronze medal and there’s definitely some money in the ‘to medal’ market there. If Penny Oleksiak swims for Canada, they should score a bronze. China will be their main threat there. China are the defending world champions, but are missing their best freestyler, Qiu Yiuhan. Sarah Sjostrom will be Sweden’s best chance of a medal as always.
- Australian Betting Organization Estimations
- Australia to win: likelihood 60%
- USA to win: likelihood 35%
- Other to win: likelihood 5%
Final Analysis & Betting Tip
Bookmakers have the Americans as the clear betting favourites, but we don’t see it that way. This is Australia’s event to lose and at $2.50 at Sportsbet,com.au, you’re looking at some very good odds. Canada to win any medal at $3.10 is also nice value, but only if Oleksiak is involved, otherwise Sweden at $4.00 provides some value.
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Writer at the Australian Betting Organization
Nic studied at Monash University and is currently working as a sports journalist. You'll often find Nic at the pub enjoying time with friends while watching UFC and WWE.
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